Red Sox outlook: Not so great expectations
The good thing about making predictions for this year's Red Sox season, which will start tomorrow (Thursday, March 30) with the home opener against the Baltimore Orioles, is that the Sox's expectations are so low that if they're a .500 or better team, they will have improved over their 78-84 last-place finish in the American League East in 2022.
Or, to put it in a way that fans of the iconic 1967 "Impossible Dream" team would understand, if they simply meet the spring-training prediction by that team's manager, Dick Williams, that "we'll win more than we'll lose," the season will be a success.
That's because realistically, with all of the question marks surrounding both the lineup and pitching, especially among the starters, there's no way you can pick them to finish any higher in the AL East than fourth, behind the Yankees, Blue Jays and Rays --- and even that assumes that this year's Sox will be better than the once-lowly Orioles, who won 83 games last year and finished in fourth, just out of the third and final wild card spot in the American League.
Even after a respectable spring training record of 14-14 and four ties --- extra innings were abandoned for the Grapefruit League --- there are simply way too many questions on this team to expect them to make the playoffs or to beat out the top three teams in the AL East.
Or, to put it in a way that fans of the iconic 1967 "Impossible Dream" team would understand, if they simply meet the spring-training prediction by that team's manager, Dick Williams, that "we'll win more than we'll lose," the season will be a success.
That's because realistically, with all of the question marks surrounding both the lineup and pitching, especially among the starters, there's no way you can pick them to finish any higher in the AL East than fourth, behind the Yankees, Blue Jays and Rays --- and even that assumes that this year's Sox will be better than the once-lowly Orioles, who won 83 games last year and finished in fourth, just out of the third and final wild card spot in the American League.
Even after a respectable spring training record of 14-14 and four ties --- extra innings were abandoned for the Grapefruit League --- there are simply way too many questions on this team to expect them to make the playoffs or to beat out the top three teams in the AL East.
Here's a brief preview:
Starting pitchers
With James Paxton, Bryan Bello and Garrett Whitlock starting the season on the injured list, the rotation will consist of:
Low-cost winter pickup, veteran Corey Kluber; perpetually injured southpaw Chris Sale, who has barely pitched since the 2018 season; Tanner Houck, who was a far better reliever than starter last year; Nick Pivetta, who has been wildly inconsistent as a starter and who gives up way too many gopher balls; and Kutter Crawford, who had one hot streak as a starter last year, but whose season ERA was well in excess of 5.
Now, the good news is that the Sox brass expects Bello and Whitlock to be back soon, which will most likely push Houck, and likely Crawford, into the bullpen, but don't bet anything on Paxton --- who spent the entire 2022 season injured --- giving you anything this year. He hurt himself --- again --- after pitching a mere 1 2/3 innings in spring training.
Relief pitchers
The bullpen should be improved with the pickup of closer Kenley Jansen and set-up man Chris Martin. But one of chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom's prime off-season bullpen acquisitions, Joely Rodriguez, hurt himself in spring training and looks to spend a lengthy time on the IR. That leaves one lefty, Richard Bleier, along with 4A pitchers Kaleb Ort and Zack Kelley (who have been underwhelming in the Majors) and Ryan Braiser, whose perpetual scowl on his face reflects his depressing pitching --- several bad innings for every good one.
The lineup
The only sure thing is third baseman Rafael Devers. Rafie will hit 30-40 bombs, likely bat .290-.320 and knock in a ton of runs --- if he has some help.
That could come from among:
* Right fielder Alex Verdugo, who has to significantly improve over 2022 for the Sox to be good.
* New designated hitter and back-up infielder Justin Turner, a free-agent signing from the Dodgers.
* Second baseman Christian Arroyo, who has shown flashes of brilliance, but who has a disturbing history of injury.
* Shortstop Kiki Hernandez, the centerfielder the last two years who has never played an entire year at short and who had a horrible year at the plate in 2022.
* Japanese import and new leftfielder Masataka Yoshida, who impressed everyone at the World Baseball Classic, putting up some gaudy numbers, but who will need a period of adjustment in the Majors.
* Centerfielder Adam Duvall, a respectable journeyman who had some outstanding years with the Atlanta Braves.
* Rookie first baseman Tristan Casas, who is an upgrade defensively but a question mark offensively as he hit .just 197 in September after being called up from Worcester.
One of the biggest lineup question marks is at catcher, where Bloom made no moves and is going with last summer's trade-deadline pickup Reese McGuire and raw rookie Connor Wong --- one of only two remaining players (along with Verdugo) traded for Mookie Betts in what looks like a disastrous trade in 2020 with the Dodgers. Minor leaguer Jorge Alfaro, who impressed at the plate in spring training, will start the season in Worcester.
Another trade piece, infielder Adalberto Mondesi, will start the season on the 60-day injured list, leaving banjo hitter Yu Chang as the prime backup infielder even though he missed nearly all of spring training after playing for Taiwan in the World Baseball Classic.
Former first baseman and infielder Bobby Dalbec will start the season in Worcester despite a standout spring.
And there you have it: Your Most Underwhelming Boston Red Sox team in years, if not decades!
With James Paxton, Bryan Bello and Garrett Whitlock starting the season on the injured list, the rotation will consist of:
Low-cost winter pickup, veteran Corey Kluber; perpetually injured southpaw Chris Sale, who has barely pitched since the 2018 season; Tanner Houck, who was a far better reliever than starter last year; Nick Pivetta, who has been wildly inconsistent as a starter and who gives up way too many gopher balls; and Kutter Crawford, who had one hot streak as a starter last year, but whose season ERA was well in excess of 5.
Now, the good news is that the Sox brass expects Bello and Whitlock to be back soon, which will most likely push Houck, and likely Crawford, into the bullpen, but don't bet anything on Paxton --- who spent the entire 2022 season injured --- giving you anything this year. He hurt himself --- again --- after pitching a mere 1 2/3 innings in spring training.
Relief pitchers
The bullpen should be improved with the pickup of closer Kenley Jansen and set-up man Chris Martin. But one of chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom's prime off-season bullpen acquisitions, Joely Rodriguez, hurt himself in spring training and looks to spend a lengthy time on the IR. That leaves one lefty, Richard Bleier, along with 4A pitchers Kaleb Ort and Zack Kelley (who have been underwhelming in the Majors) and Ryan Braiser, whose perpetual scowl on his face reflects his depressing pitching --- several bad innings for every good one.
The lineup
The only sure thing is third baseman Rafael Devers. Rafie will hit 30-40 bombs, likely bat .290-.320 and knock in a ton of runs --- if he has some help.
That could come from among:
* Right fielder Alex Verdugo, who has to significantly improve over 2022 for the Sox to be good.
* New designated hitter and back-up infielder Justin Turner, a free-agent signing from the Dodgers.
* Second baseman Christian Arroyo, who has shown flashes of brilliance, but who has a disturbing history of injury.
* Shortstop Kiki Hernandez, the centerfielder the last two years who has never played an entire year at short and who had a horrible year at the plate in 2022.
* Japanese import and new leftfielder Masataka Yoshida, who impressed everyone at the World Baseball Classic, putting up some gaudy numbers, but who will need a period of adjustment in the Majors.
* Centerfielder Adam Duvall, a respectable journeyman who had some outstanding years with the Atlanta Braves.
* Rookie first baseman Tristan Casas, who is an upgrade defensively but a question mark offensively as he hit .just 197 in September after being called up from Worcester.
One of the biggest lineup question marks is at catcher, where Bloom made no moves and is going with last summer's trade-deadline pickup Reese McGuire and raw rookie Connor Wong --- one of only two remaining players (along with Verdugo) traded for Mookie Betts in what looks like a disastrous trade in 2020 with the Dodgers. Minor leaguer Jorge Alfaro, who impressed at the plate in spring training, will start the season in Worcester.
Another trade piece, infielder Adalberto Mondesi, will start the season on the 60-day injured list, leaving banjo hitter Yu Chang as the prime backup infielder even though he missed nearly all of spring training after playing for Taiwan in the World Baseball Classic.
Former first baseman and infielder Bobby Dalbec will start the season in Worcester despite a standout spring.
And there you have it: Your Most Underwhelming Boston Red Sox team in years, if not decades!
You called it. And after two games so far, they will need a lot of 9-8 victories if they want to make the playoffs! — Bill S
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